Key Macroeconomic Themes
In an August 2023 update to our annual global macroeconomic outlook, Beneficient and Oxford Economics believe the global economy will continue to grow, but will weaken in 2024 to be one of the weakest years in recent decades.
Summary
Although world GDP growth is likely to have slowed in the middle of the year, near-term indicators still point to solid growth underpinned by the resilient performance of the services sector. As such, we have upgraded our 2023 world GDP growth forecast from 2.0% in April to 2.4% in anticipation of a stronger end to the year than previously anticipated.
In this mid-year follow-up, we analyze current economic trends and provide an update on the market views shared earlier this year in our whitepaper, Geographic Diversification in Private Equity Markets. Click the “Download the Update” button to the right to learn more about:
Lagged Monetary Policy Transmission to Prolong Lackluster Global Growth
Throughout next year we forecast that the Fed will implement 150bps of rate cuts, down from an assumed 275bps in April. Elsewhere, after cooling its hiking pace to 25bps in its last three meetings, we now believe the ECB will reach a terminal rate of 4% in September, 25bps higher than before. However, it takes time for monetary policy to influence activity and inflation – because of this lag in transmission, we believe the peak impact of past policy tightening is still to be felt.
Housing Stabilization at Risk
Although fears of contagion from the market turmoil earlier this year have subsided, we see falling house prices as a key risk to the banking sector. We expect the stabilization in global house prices to prove short-lived given the factors that prompted it – such as a fallback in mortgage rates and an easing in the pace of bank credit restrictions – are wearing off. With some housing markets beginning to edge lower, we expect real house prices in the G7 to fall 6% this year and a further 3% in 2024.
Risk Scenario: Asset Price Crash
Higher interest rates weigh heavily on financial and housing markets, leading banking strains to spread to larger banks. Sharply lower equity prices hit business and consumer demand. House price falls exacerbate the impact, leading to a tightening of credit conditions and weaker residential investment.
Market Forecasts and Private Allocation
On the private markets front, a mild change of fortune in PE funds is in large part a consequence of the higher rate environment as well as of a more competitive alpha-generating landscape forcing GP to pay higher prices for their investments than in the past. In this high inflation risk scenario, U.S. policy rates would indeed rise by an additional 125bps before the end of the current hiking cycle, making for a difficult environment for tech investments which would soon erase the gains from 2023 H1 (up ~42% as of June 30th).
Disclosure
The information in this material is not intended to replace any information or consultation provided by a financial advisor or other professional nor shall be perceived to constitute financial, legal, accounting or tax advice.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Ben or Oxford Economics. The information in this material is not intended to replace any information or consultation provided by a financial advisor or other professional nor shall be perceived to constitute financial, legal, accounting or tax advice.
These materials contain certain estimates, projections and forward-looking statements that contain substantial risks and uncertainties. The estimates, projections and forward-looking statements contained herein may or may not be realized, accurate or complete, and differences between estimated results and those realized may be material. Such estimates, projections and forward-looking statements are illustrative only and reflect various assumptions of Ben’s management concerning the future performance of Ben and its affiliates, and are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties, and contingencies, many of which are beyond Ben’s control.
Except as otherwise noted, the materials speak as of 2023. Neither Ben nor any of its affiliates or representatives undertakes any obligation to update or revise any of the information contained herein or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent.
